000
ACUS03 KWNS 240657
SWODY3
SPC AC 240656

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 27/12Z.  PRIOR TO HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIVE AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT NWD DURING THE
DAY.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD START THE DAY JUST SOUTH OF I-80 AND A
FOCUSED LLJ COULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN THE GENERATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS
FROM THE SD/NEB BORDER...EWD INTO NRN IL.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT A VERY STRONG CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS WARM EML
WILL SPREAD NWD DURING THE DAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM FRONT.  IT/S
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR NORTH OF THE FRONT PARCELS WILL NEED TO
ASCEND BEFORE CAPPING IS NOT AN ISSUE AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING
THE CAP IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.  LATEST THINKING
IS ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  A GRADUAL
NWD SHIFT TO THESE TSTMS WILL BE NOTED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD.  IT
DOES NOT APPEAR WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CAP.  THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED BEYOND THE DAY3 PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/24/2012

Current Severe Weather Information

Current Severe Weather Information, including Advisories, Nexrad, Discussions, and Storm Reports.

• Advisories
• NEXRAD Radar
• Current Severe Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussion
• Tornado Reports - Last 3 Hour's
• Hail Reports - Last 3 Hours
• Wind Reports - Last 3 Hours
• Killer Tornadoes

Mesoscale Analysis

Regional gridded mesoanalysis data across the United States, updated every hour. This information is provided by SPC as a way of sharing the latest severe weather diagnostic techniques with local forecasters.

Forecast Severe Weather Information

Forecast for Severe Weather, including Severe Weather Potential, and Probability Maps.

• Convective Outlook for Today
• Convective Outlook for Day 2
• Convective Outlook for Day 3
• Probability of Severe Weather
• Probability of Hail
• Probability of Tornadoes
• Probability of Severe Winds