000
ACUS01 KWNS 061600
SWODY1
SPC AC 061558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS VICINITY.  THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE
NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  POCKETS OF HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL
YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN.

..SMITH.. 02/06/2012

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